What can change Trump’s second impeachment trial?

Exactly one week after the assault on the Capitol, the House of Representatives voted the impeachment against Donald Trump. It was passed when, seven days earlier, members of Congress feared for their lives.

Therefore, Donald Trump is accused of “inciting the insurgency” with 232 votes in favor and 197 against. 10 Republicans voted for Donald Trump is fired. A remarkable fact for some. Because just over a year ago, during his first impeachment in the Ukraine case, no Republicans had joined the Democrats. Others will say that it is not much in view of evidence of guilt by Donald Trump.

Among the 10 Republicans, Liz Cheney. She is the daughter of Dick Cheney, former vice president of George Bush. “The President of the United States summoned this crowd of rioters and lit the flame of this attack. All that followed was his work. I could have intervened. He didn’t, “he said.

Will Donald Trump be able to finish his term?

Now that the House of Representatives has passed the impeachment, the trial may take place in the Senate. The problem is that senators don’t sit down until Jan. 19, the day before Joe Biden’s inauguration. Clearly, Donald Trump will end his term. He will not be expelled from the White House.

For him to be fired, it will be necessary two thirds of the Senate. There are 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats. We must get to 67. Therefore, 17 Republican senators must vote against Trump.

A man has the keys: this is Mitch McConnell, the leader of the Republican Senators. He is a central figure in American politics. Joe Biden and he know each other well. They often clashed but respect each other. Mitch McConnell has hinted that he could vote for impeachment. If so, if he ain’t bragging, must convince 16 other senators. But does he really intend to impeach Donald Trump? Or is he pressuring the latter to make a deal? Basically, the message is this: “Donald, if you found your party, if you break the Republican Party: we fire you.”

An impeachment trial to prevent him from running in 2024?

Donald Trump may never stand up again if indicted. The first days there was a blur because the lawyers did not agree. In fact, the sole indictment against Trump is not enough to block a candidacy in 2024. But it is enough to vote on another article, a kind of annex. Its adoption requires only a simple majority. We can see it clearly: there is the symbolic side of this dismissal. Neither procedure has been successful so far, as Richard Nixon resigned before the Watergate trial.

The symbolic and the political. The future of the American political landscape is at stake. Because if Donald Trump announces the creation of a movement or a political party, the Republican Party Is in danger.

Last element, this is Joe Biden. The president did not say it clearly but he would not be delighted with this dismissal. Not that I wanted to give Donald Trump a flower. But he knows that for weeks, at the beginning of his term, we will talk a lot about the billionaire. And necessarily this will interfere with your message during the first 100 days. I would have preferred that the entire political class concentrated on fighting the epidemic.

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